Its manageable for now, but if it becomes a protracted problem and the US locates its bases from Spain to Major Non-NATO Ally Morocco, then the US and the EU might find themselves backing opposite sides in a future Moroccan-Spanish war over the latters remaining North African holdings.
Aleaked Pentagon memosuggested that the US seek Spains suspension from NATO for refusing to allow it access, basing, and overflight (ABO) rights during theThird Gulf War. Spanish Premier Pedro Sanchezdismissedit while a NATO officialsaidthat theres no provision for suspending members. NATO allies rallied around Spain as theBBCnoted in their report, which also reminded everyone that Sanchez earlier criticized US-Israeli attacks on Iran and flat-out refused Trumps demand to spend 5% of GDP on defense.
From Trumps perspective, Spain was already a disloyal ally for being the only one that refused his spending demand, but refusing to allow the US ABO rights during the Third Gulf War crossed a red line. Nevertheless, as the abovementioned NATO official said, theres no provision for suspending members. Therefore, if Trump still decides to implement the memos suggestion, hell essentially be forcing the bloc to choose between the US and Spain: it can either give Spain the cold shoulder or lose US support.
From NATOs perspective, retaining unity is paramount in the face of whats (arguably wrongly) perceived as the so-called Russian threat (that even traditionally anti-Russian Estoniano longer believesis imminent), so any such move by Trump would throw it into a dilemma. Nevertheless, if pressed to choose, its more important for them to remain on Trumps good side, without which they cant keep fueling theUkrainian Conflicttill 2029in the hopesof a Democrat then returning to the White House.
Spain is thus expected to be thrown under the bus by NATO, but all that would mean in practice is that the US wouldnt provide any Article 5 support in the event that Morocco tries to forcefully wrest control over Spainsseveral North African holdingsthat Rabat considers to be occupied territory. Leading EU countries could still try to deter Morocco through hybrid economic-military means, however, and could intervene in Spains support against it in the scenario of war over these lands too.
Interestingly, the US might back Major Non-NATO Ally Morocco in that event if its air and naval base from Spain are transferred there, which is possible in light of the new10-year American-Moroccan defense roadmap. In that case, the US and the EU could find themselves on opposite sides of a future Spanish-Moroccan War despite both being NATO members, which could further worsen intra-bloc tensions to the point of an irreconcilable rift. The US might as well try totake Greenlandif that happens.
From Spains perspective, preserving its North African holdings is a matter of prestige, but it cant be discounted that Spains growing foreign-born population could ultimately lead to a policy reversal. The10 million already in Spainnow account for one-fifth of all residents. Itadded ~700,000last year alone, one-third of the EUs increase in 2025, and Sanchez just decided tolegalize ~500,000 illegal immigrants. Its therefore within the realm of possibility that Morocco peacefully obtains those territories instead.
Reflecting on the Spanish-US spat: 1) Spain is being punished for defying the US; 2) NATO is expected to support the US over Spain if forced to choose; and 3) the US might relocate its bases from Spain to Morocco and then back Rabat against Madrid if they go to war over the latters North African holdings. In terms of NATO unity, this spat definitely presents a challenge thereto, but its still manageable for now. If it becomes a protracted problem, however, then it could potentially lead to NATOs unraveling.
Andrew Korybko
